Emission cuts a weighty issue
BY CHRISTOPHER TAN TORQUE
Car manufacturers have given us direct injection, clever use of various forced-induction methods, new transmission trends (dual-clutch, CVTs), stop-start mechanisms, and even diesel and hybrid powertrains - all in an effort to reduce consumption and emission.
But it is all pretty pointless. That is because cars are now being driven more, and they are caught in traffic congestion a lot more than before.
Also, cars have become bigger. The current Honda Civic is the size of an Accord of 20 years ago. So-called mid-size executive models like the Mercedes E-class and BMW 5 Series are now pushing towards 5m in length - a preserve of limos like the S-class and 7 Series not too long ago.
No prize for guessing why cars are becoming bigger. Yes, humans have become bigger and heavier. Recent studies by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the average height of American men aged between 20 and 74 had increased from 1.73m in 1960 to 1.77m in 2002.
His average weight hadmeanwhile increased from 75.4kg to 86.7kg - an 11.3kg gain. The added weight was most pronounced among those aged 40 and above.
A point to note: Several European manufacturers still measure their cars' fuel consumption with a 70kg driver on board, never mind that the aver-age German weighed 82.4kg as of 2005.
Picture four American adults in a car. That works out to be a total weight gain of 45.2kg, on average. And that translates to a 2 per cent increase in fuel consumption, all other things being equal.
'What if the four Americans were in a Volkswagen Golf? The Mk6 Golf is about 400kg heavier than the Mk1.
Assuming that the latest Golf is powered by a 1.2 TSI engine, capable of covering 100km on 5.8 litres of petrol, which just about matches the Mk1's economy, that still leaves us with a 2 per cent deterioration in economy.
According to the Land Transport Authority's annual statistics, cars up to 1600cc averaged 9.4 litres per 100km here in 2008 - up from 8.3 litres in 2003.
Now, it is not entirely certain if that is owing to the general demise of smaller cars (those tiny - ones with engines no larger than one litre), or because of an overall increase in congestion.
But, going by anecdotal evidence, the roads have become more crowded in the last five years, thanks to a surge in the number of vehicles registered.
A rising vehicle population is a problem everywhere. In China, growth has been explosive. India will follow.
There are now around 900 million vehicles in the world, nearly double the figure of 1995.
Industry experts expect the figure to reach a whopping 1.8 billion in less than 30 years. Combine that trend with rapid urbanisation and the picture be-comes bleaker.
The United Nations has predicted that more and more people will live in cities, and cities will consequently become bigger and bigger.
This in turn will give rise to suburbanisation (also called urban sprawl), which will mean longer commutes by car.
So, whatever emission cuts countries pledged in Kyoto or Copenhagen are unlikely to be realised unless very drastic steps are taken.
Like halving the use of vehicles. Which will be nearly as difficult as getting people to shed 11.3kg each.
